Presidential Jeopardy
The race for president is shaping up to resemble a game show rather than an election
Charlie: And so, the presidential campaign begins! Actually, that statement is a little misleading because presidential campaigns don’t begin, they simply never end. It’s an ongoing process where all kinds of people announce their “intentions” to run or say that they are “testing the water,” or talking to fat cat funders or other people who help with the process. Just about every one of them is destined to lose (actually, all but one of them) and move to the back burner of the great stove of American politics, where they bubble away until they run dry, offer occasional observations about the unfairness of the process, or respond to another beckoning campaign. And that’s before the process of primary elections begins when everything becomes much louder and frantic. Who is in the game at this point? President Biden, obviously, and former president Donald Trump get all the attention.
But there is a long list of potential Republican contenders who are being “mentioned,” whatever that means. Democrats, we can’t say. No one sticks his or her head up when there is an incumbent in the same party, no matter the incumbent’s standing. On the Republican side, here are some of the others: Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, Nikki Haley, former U.N. Ambassador and former governor of South Carolina, Mike Pence, vice president under Trump, Ryan Binkley, a pastor and businessman from Dallas, Larry Elder, a former conservative media person, Asa Hutchinson, Arkansas governor twice, congressman, Perry Johnson, failed Michigan governor candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, investor and former pharm CEO, Kristi Noem, South Dakota governor, Michigan’s Mike Rogers, who left Congress to become a talk radio personality, Tim Scott, the South Carolina Senator, Chris Sununu, New Hampshire governor (a big advantage to be discussed later) Greg Abbott, the Texas governor, Chris Christie, former New Jersey governor, Marco Rubio, Floridian now eclipsed by DeSantis.
There’s more, too, but not much point in expanding this list. Be assured that every person on this list is someone who thinks they would be ideal in the White House, although it's highly unlikely ever to be you, the voter. What do you think of all this, Jim?
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Jim: At this juncture, I’d say it’s a retread election: Biden and Trump against anybody who isn’t Biden or Trump. On the Republican side, the primary season will kick off with the lame Iowa caucuses, which is really not a vote in a state that is not representative of the country. At least voters get to vote in primaries, although New Hampshire, which is second in line for Republicans, isn’t representative of much, either. Although I dread a repeat of the last election, Trump has a solid thirty percent of the GOP base, which makes him the likely candidate. The first Democratic primary will be South Carolina, which gave Biden the momentum to win the last election. So, as you say, with no Democrat willing to challenge a sitting President from his own party, it looks like a Trump-Biden rematch. The race is shaping up to resemble a game show. A spoiler could emerge and get on the ballot. Ross Perot did that and siphoned enough votes to tilt the race to Bill Clinton. Things could get interesting if Chris Sununu jumps in. He’s popular in his home state of New Hampshire and could deny Trump a one-two punch to slow his momentum. The only credible threat to President Biden is Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. But I think his anti-vaccine views will damage him badly against a President who presided over the end of Covid. The Democrats wisely passed on Iowa and will head straight for South Carolina, where Biden scored the victory that launched his successful run for the White House. Unfortunately, I fear the press will cover the election like a horse race, emphasizing who’s up and who’s down. The candidates’ positions on important issues usually don’t get much traction in the debates that accompany the primaries unless someone stumbles on an issue, as former Texas Governor Rick Perry did when he couldn’t recall the name of the third federal agency he said he would eliminate. I’m afraid I don’t see much more than a repeat that will send Biden back to the White House.
Charlie: This whole process draws out strange emotions in me, passions, and one of them is all about numbers. The last population figure from the U.S. Census bureau sets out population at 332,287,557, give or take a few here or there. So, the primary process begins in flinty New Hampshire, a state with a population of 1,395,231. Immense attention will be paid by media. Why? Because it always has paid immense attention. It propagates itself. But consider this, New Hampshire isn’t representative of anyplace but New Hampshire, as you pointed out. Black people make up roughly 13.6 percent of the nation’s population, but 1.9 percent of the population of New Hampshire. Iowa and its caucus system get a lot of attention too, with a population of 3,200,517. Granted, a caucus is not a vote. But Iowa’s black population is 4.3 percent. Hispanics or Latinos make up 6.7 per cent in Iowa, but almost twenty percent nationally. Another point, primary election turnout is generally abysmal, less than half of the turnout in general elections, which is why some strange developments are caused by people sitting on their behinds on election day. If only the faithful Trumpites turn out, then we will face him again against Biden in what we could well label in November “The Race of The Ancient White Men.”
Jim: One of the problems the process highlights is how we don’t know how to age in America. I think one reason people like Trump and Biden hang on is the lust for power. But we also don’t give people who should just step aside many alternatives. What if we created a Job Corps for older Americans where they can use their experience to help solve the nation’s problems. Maybe pay them a nominal salary to help younger people solve problems like our voracious appetite for fossil fuels, gun violence, education failure or the lack of jobs in inner city neighborhoods. We have an enormous reservoir of talent, brains and experience that goes to waste because we don’t capitalize on older Americans who don’t want to spend their latter years playing golf. I could see Biden joining such as Job Corps. Trump? Not a chance. But at least we might have a younger, smarter alternative with some fresh ideas. Maybe we wouldn’t have so many aging politicians hanging on to power in Washington if they had an alternative that values their experience. We might also get people excited enough to go out and vote in primaries and general elections.
—James O’Shea and Charles Madigan
James O’Shea is a longtime Chicago author and journalist who now lives in North Carolina. He is the author of several books and is the former editor of the Los Angeles Times and managing editor of the Chicago Tribune.
Charles Madigan is a writer and veteran foreign and national correspondent for UPI and the Chicago Tribune, where he also served as a senior writer and editor. He examines news reporting, politics and world events.
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